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Running Mate Speculation
By John W. Kennedy | July 24, 2008
With the identity of presidential nominees decided long ago, pundits lately have been obsessed with trying to handicap the contest for vice president.
A pair of new polls indicates that voters favor Barack Obama picking his closest rival Hillary Clinton as a running mate. Likewise, much of the populace wants John McCain to select Mitt Romney as his partner.
I don’t think either will happen. Those rivals carry too much baggage and really won’t help the standard bearers attract new voters.
Obama and Clinton didn’t get along too well. Plus, Obama has emphasized change and Clinton represents the status quo. And, it’s unlikely that the first major party candidate to be African American will pick a woman as his running mate when this country has had nothing but white men as presidents for more than two centuries.
McCain and Romney also didn’t hit it off during the primary season. And McCain, in need of shoring up the evangelical base that has been the bastion of the Republican Party for a quarter century, won’t help himself in that regard by tapping a Mormon.
Conventional wisdom dictates that Obama pick someone who has served a lengthy stretch in government, is experienced in foreign affairs, is older and white. Likewise, McCain needs to find a running mate who is younger, more conservative, more dynamic and experienced in tackling economic problems.
Of course nominees sometimes disregard conventional wisdom. In 1992 Bill Clinton defied advice to balance the ticket by picking Al Gore, another Southerner his same age. It seemed to work.
George H.W. Bush shocked everyone in 1988 by choosing a wild card: the young, conservative, obscure Dan Quayle. Bush stuck with Quayle when he ran a second time and that didn’t help him.
John F. Kennedy and Ronald Reagan both picked their chief competitors as their vice presidents.
The vice presidential candidates this year might have a significant impact. If McCain chooses Mike Huckabee it could swing a lot of undecided evangelical voters his way. If Obama names Evan Bayh to the ticket it might soothe those who view him as too liberal. I’m anticipating the choices with great expectation.
Topics: Politics |